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The Chinese characters for "crisis" mean danger and opportunity, and the dangers of coronavirus (COVID-19) are obvious. The disease is highly contagious, it has a relatively high fatality rate, and there is no vaccine against it. During the webinar expert speaker William A. Levinson will suggest the countermeasures recommended by OSHA, the CDC, Surgeon General Adams, and Dr. Anthony Fauci which, if followed diligently, reduce COVID-19 to a still-dangerous but manageable menace by summer.
This is because the ability of any disease to spread depends on its basic reproduction number R0, the average number of people whom an infected individual will infect. If this is greater than 1, the disease will spread, and that for COVID-19 is somewhere around 2.6 (the best available guess). If however countermeasures such as hand hygiene, social distancing, limits on public gatherings, and so on suppress this to less than 1.0, the infected population will fall off and there will in fact be no curve to flatten.
The crisis has also, however, revealed enormous dangers associated with complex international supply chains, many of which have been disrupted badly by force majeure. Xinhua, China's official news organ, published a threat to intentionally disrupt U.S. supply chains by cutting off pharmaceutical exports; China threatened previously to cut exports of the rare earths that are used in, for example, electric vehicles. (See for example Fredericks, Bob. 2019. "China threatens to limit rare earths exports in warning over trade war." New York Post, May 29 2019. https://nypost.com/2019/05/29/china-threatens-to-limit-rare-earths-exports-in-warning-over-trade-war/ and also Buncombe, Andrew. 2020. "US and China in war of words as Beijing threatens to halt supply of medicine amid coronavirus crisis." The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-china-us-drugs-trump-rubio-china-virus-xinhua-hell-epidemic-a9400811.html ) This is a strong argument for reshoring American manufacturing capability, which will help with the economic recovery and also provide high-wage jobs for American workers.
Forcible adaptation to COVID-19 through distance education, online conferencing, and virtual tourism could meanwhile create opportunities for everybody involved. If distance education works, then there is really no need to return to classrooms and their associated costs and overhead. This could deliver lower tuition for college students, lower school taxes for property owners, and higher compensation for faculty and staff. Online conferencing and virtual tourism also are less expensive as they do not require travel or lodging, and off-the-shelf technology is available to support them.
As bonus, attendees will recieve an Excel spreadsheet that generates the infection curve via the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model along with documentation of the method. This can be used for educational purposes to demonstrate the benefits of countermeasures such as social distancing in reducing the infection rate. It can also be used to model the seasonal flu when a certain fraction of the population is vaccinated.
After attending this critical webinar, you will:
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